Fin111 Financial Markets and Economic Principles

pic Financial Markets and Economic Principles (FIN111) Assignment Answer Template Stu loots Please preface Word count your word count for this I have read the Assignment Guide in the step inject Room and have applied the word count fitting principles to my work. My word count for this duty assignment is 5368 words Marker feedback Comment on everywhereall performance For marker use only. Students begin your assignment answers on the following page. Begin your assignment answers from this point. Section A scruple 1 Describe the trading trading operations of each comp whatever JB Hi If Is an Australian owned and operated company established in 1974. Due to the conquest of the stage crease model and the growing retail domain in July 2000 JB Hi Fi was purchased by private faithfulness bankers and senior management with the strategy of taking the model nationally. With a sloshed sign of the success of the a ssembly line in October 2003, JB Hi Fi was floated on the Australian Stock exchange.JB Hi Fi has proven to be one of Australias fastest growing and big(a)st retailers of home entertainment. Looking to build on the self- do model and set forth their operations in July 2004, JB Hi Fi bought the Clive Anthony chain of retail stores who competed in the same retail space. Harvey Norman Is an Australian found retail provider of electrical, furniture, computer, entertainment and home goods. They have everywhere 230 stores in Australia and abroad in countries including innovative Zealand, Slovenia, Ireland, Malaysia, Croatia and Singapore.Harvey Norman has implemented a unique strategy to the Australian retail mart done their operating(a) structure, in that each store department is operated by a separate liberty. at that placefore these superstores ar a combination of more than one business with each libertye (computer, bedding, electrical) contri thoing to the gross revenue of Harvey Norman Holdings Ltd. This is achieved with their individual lease payment and a percentage of their sales. The individual departments have their own checkouts for its products and w behouse space is sh atomic number 18d by the separate franchisees.Harvey Norman Holdings Limited is to a fault a franchisor of other well(p) cognize retail chains including Domayne, Joyce Mayne and others. Consider the tell divisors that may affect the performance and the sh are expenditure of the companies in the short and foresightful status Given the fact two companies are competitors in the retail welkin, key performers affecting their performance exit be quite similar. They twain heavily rely on the phthisis of the House fight down Sector, this helps drives revenue through their operations. A business enterprise thitherfore would be given the gainsay scotchal seasons in that respect is a decrease in domestic sp resultant.With households adversely increasing their saving s as fretting over the autonomous debt crisis in Europe escalates and general unease in regards to the world(prenominal) prudence. This is in any case reflected through the Business Cycle as it is my belief we are streamly within a Contraction to trough distributor point which is reflective of a decline in retail sales. This decline has been seen across the country through the whole retail orbit as organisations battle to lower prices to remain competitive when bespeak isnt strong and still attempt to retain a profit.Some retailers have opted for unyieldinger trading hours and thither is also concern over the moving trend towards inter clear shopping. JB Hi Fi topically have a strong focus on online shopping which has helped them maintain consistent sales results. Harvey Norman have give the sack to online shopping only in July of 2011, and has big ambitions with Gerry Harvey stating Ive told my team I want them to turn over $100 cardinal within 2-3 years and then take it to $1billon within 5-10 years. The decline is also reflected in the ABS disdainful Key Figures hatch for monthly turnover within the retail sector which truism department stores post a -0. % fall in July to August 2011. Also a long term concern for both companies would be that if planetary fairness markets do recover and inflation rises that leave attract to a rise in following evaluate which would advertise affect the Household sector through their discretionary spending. The fluctuations of the Australian dollar exit contact both companies as the stronger Australian dollar lowers the prices both enterprises can charge consumers. Increasingly consumers are buying electronics online both domestically and international, with the resilient dollar bounteous them an incentive to shop abroad. incertitude 2 ) JB high fidelity and its network of retail stores is an intermediary. They are an intermediary amongst the large electronic manufacturers (Sony, Samsung, Panasonic ) whose products are sold in store and the general consumer in the household sector. The large manufactures are able to meet the order demands of the organisation and JB high fidelity sound system in return supplies the broad market with the products. The consumer is provided with a product at a competitive price and JB Hi Fi wee-wees a margin on the product for the service. 2) JB Hi-Fi also uses an additional intermediary to change magnitude their exposure in the sector.They have purchased Clive Anthony which was some other established retail electrical chain. They own Clive Anthony even it continues to operate under its original trading name. all(a) revenue is attributed to the JB Hi FI Limited organisation. 3) Harvey Norman Holdings Limited is well known for using a mo of intermediaries within their own organisation. They have fragmented each department (bedding, electrical, computer) of their organisation to be an individual franchise or intermediary. With each franchisee co ntributing to the gross revenue of Harvey Norman Holdings Limited.This provides each department the power to specialise and deliver expert service to their consumers. Other monetary intermediaries Harvey Norman would include its acquired retails chain Clive lances and the number of overseas retail operations it owns which contribute to its net profit. scruple 3 Question 3 Impact of monetary policy Justify the Reserve Banks closing on interest rate denote on 4 October 2011 The factors that influenced the Reserve Banks decision and the promising disturbs on the domestic preservation The Reserve Bank nominated on the 4th of October to keep enkindle rates on hold for the 10th straight meeting.The factors influencing this decision were concern over global monetary markets and fears world economies may be sent into global recession. Previously during the Aug-Sep meetings there had been a deteriation in the markets and betwixt Sep-Oct meetings that had been a further hard d eteriation of global markets. The RBA acknowledged that domestic produce would weaklyen in the advent quarters. Europes sovereign debt issues are a major concern to the RBA and a contributing factor to rates remaining on hold. It has caused major volatility to global markets, with growing uncertainty in regards to a solution and its impact on banks in Europe.It is also affecting the spotter for Global Economic outgrowth. The RBA ordain continue to assess market developments as well as the general indicators it follows including economy and inflation data. A benefit for the domestic economy is the RBA stated it had a bias to easing and that a rate hurt could slip by if September Quarter CPI data due on October 26 showed a succor in prices The impact on the share market as a whole and the share price of your chosen companies The immediate impact on the share market following the RBAs decision was negative. The S&P/ASX 200 closed down 0. % or 24. 9 points to 3872. 1 points, w ith the exclusively Ordinaries down 0. 6% or 25. 1 points to 3935. 6. Also the Australian dollar slumped to a 13-month low of $94. 6 US cents. notwithstanding an optimistic start to trading on the day with the market overcoming a negative pull up stakes from the US, the RBAs decision had plunged the markets back into negative territory. JB Hi-Fi was down 60 cents to $14. 30 Not a substantial impact to HVN which was up 2cents from the close the previous day. Whether the impact on the share market as a whole differed from the impact on your chosen companiesThe negative impact of the decision by the RBA was shared by both the market itself and the individual holdings of JB Hi Fi Limited and Harvey Norman Holdings Limited. The decision had a significant impact on the performance of consumer exposed stocks such as JB HI FI and Harvey Norman. Question 4 JB HI FI affix its first profit slide since the stock floated in 2003. There were some contributing factors to this performance incl uding a restructure of its Clive Anthonys stores and a negative sales growth for July. JB Hi-Fi reported on August 8th 2011 that full year net profit fell 7. 5% to $109. 7 million on sales of $2. 6 billion, up 8. 3%. The slip has been attributed to the $24. 7 million in addresss to restructure its Clive Anthony stores. Annual comparable sales fell 1. 2% Despite the daunting panorama for the retail sector JB Hi FI have stated they expect other solid group sales performance for this financial year, with full year sales to rise 8% to 3. 2billion. JB Hi FI is expecting that the Christmas finis will be successful also timing with a number of pertly product releases. However due to the profit results and weak July sales on August 9th JB Hi-Fi shares closed down 35 cents at $14. 00 Harvey Norman announced a net profit after tax of $252. 6 million for the financial year ending 30 June 2011, which is up 9% on the 2010 financial year. These results were released in its 2011 annual repor t. The franchises within the organisation keep to provide the stability in the overall performance of the group. Owner Gerry Harvey stated we have a strong balance sheet underpinned by a $2. 04 billion property portfolio and generate strong free net cash flows from our franchising operations segment Total revenue for the year was $2. 7 billion, which has adjoind from the 2010 figure of $2. 45 billion according to the results statement.Harvey Norman experienced an increase in consumer transactions despite revenue organism down, this was caused by the strong Australian dollar reducing prices on imported goods. Despite the retail sector weakening in reflection of global markets Harvey Norman franchisees have experienced strong customer vocation and transactions. Also stronger results generated by retail operations in Singapore, Malaysia and Slovenia have increased profitability by $4. 65 million before tax collectively compared to the previous year. Despite challenging macroeconomic conditions, the outlook the retail, franchise and property system of the company remains supportive.An important addition to the business moving forward in the first fractional of 2012 financial year will be the launching of our e-commerce site for Harvey Norman. Harvey Norman states they are confident there online transactional strategy will produce incremental dollars to the existing channel. Harvey Norman closed 1cent high after releasing its annual report at $2. 15 on August 29th. Question 5 Explain the correlation of returns from the asset secernatees Cash- Is looking to be a stable and reliable asset class in the 2011 calendar year. It will provide necessary stability to investors profiles.However will remain comparatively unattractive reflecting low interest rates. Some important gestateations for the RBA in determining any movement in monetary policy is the strength of the Australian dollar relative to trading partners, in specific the US. It is anticipate the RBA will lift the cash rate to 5% before the end of the year Fixed cheer allow for provide stability with a higher yield than cash given there is an member of attempt. Savvy investors will look to this sector as global equities remain volatile and fixed interest provides the ability to stabilise returns.Large parts of the credit market in particular Australian credit oblation reasonable value especially if the global growth outlook commences an incline. Equity Global equity markets outlook remains extremely volatile. This outlook is reinforced by the RBAs upstart decisions to keep interest rates on hold and even suggest they may be deducted in the future. The cause for concern has travel on from the Sub Prime Crisis of 2008 and is now centred on government sovereign debt in the US and particularly in Europe and the PIGGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece, Spain).Of major concern is whether Greece will default on its loans and the potential impact on world markets. This is meeting out at the moment with recent developments within the EU with a bailout broth and more recently revision of the size of the fund. This has provided huge amounts of volatility in the market and it seems it will play out some of the year, with a potential default if not avoided of Greece in beforehand(predicate) 2012. There is agglomerate of value long term in equities currently with stocks undervalued however you must be prepared to hold volatility in the short to medium term.Property With improving international economic conditions, a local economy with good foundations and quality property managers achieving attractive hurt on financing, prospects for high grade property enthronement remains attractive. Australian direct property will continue to perform well and prospects for the sector are high especially in commercial and industrial property. The retail sector could be a peril given the challenging times being experienced in the Australian consumer sector Provide a forecas t of which asset class you believe will provide the best returns in 2011Due to global economic growth picking up in 2011 with various predictions at around 3. 5 4% impelled largely by acclivitous economies, this provides opportunities in the equities sector. Market volatility is likely to continue due to self-directed debt concerns in Europe and the impact of potential further quantitative easing in the United States. There is concern about equity markets seemingly drifting sidewise over the past 12 months, however global share markets have recorded strong gains The economic outlook is likely to be verifying for equities in 2011, while there will be areas of concern.The slowly improving economic environment and a potential solution to the sovereign debt crisis in Europe should see companies begin to expand by acceptance. afterward experiencing a significant correction in 2010, equities are well positioned to post strong gains in 2011. Shares are good value and continuing eco nomic recovery will contribute to further gains in profit. Question 6 Question 6 Influences on share prices Provide a graph showing both companies daily share price and the All Ordinaries index over the four week tracking period pic pic Explain the performance of the two companies over the four week period.In your explanation consider The impact of any significant events or unexpected announcements JB Hi Fi The announcement of Apples launch of its latest handset the iPhone 4s is hoped to have a significant impact on sales and foot traffic through its retail stores. JB Hi-Fi held its annual general meeting on the 12th of October, it stated total sales were up 6. 6% compared with the previous corresponding period. The timing of this peeleds to the market had investors responding positively with 3. 09% increase for the day with a close at $14. 36 Harvey Norman Holdings Limited There is direct concern for Harvey Norman over debt issues within Europe as they hold operations in Irelan d which was the first country in the European Union to ask for a bailout. Harvey Normans stores there made a trading neediness of $38. 59 million for the 2010-11 financial year, with the board committed to Ireland for the long term Harvey Norman have also responded to the online retail sector threat by launching a reinvigorated e-commerce site in early October Harvey Norman released its annual report on the 29th of September, revealing a 9% rise in 2011 full-year net profit to $252. 3 million Whether the performances have been similar or different The performance of Harvey Norman has been quite flat with quite limited movement of the stock over the reporting period. They released their annual report with a rise in profits but investors did not respond with any significant movements. JB Hi-Fi hit a low of $13. 87 for the reporting period on the 11th of October as anxiety hit over the release of information from its annual general meeting. The news and results provided were positi ve and the stock reacted positively reaching close to the peak of the reporting period on the 14th of October closing at $15. 0 How the companies performed in relation to the All Ordinaries Index There has been limited volatility seen in regards to both JB Hi-FI and Harvey Norman. The reasons for this would be they both have core business which is based in the retail household consumer sector. The All Ordinaries which is based on the movements of the top 500 Australian companies has a much wider exposure to sectors. It is for this reason there has been significantly more volatility on the All Ordinaries as it has been exposed to the markets recent concerns over the European Sovereign debt crisis. Whether the shares would be considered growth or defensive Both these companies shares would be considered orbitual stocks, where sales and earnings are affected by economic or industry cycle They would accordingly be considered growth shares. Your view with justification on whether the companies are a buy, sell or hold JB Hi-Fi (HOLD) The stock is vulnerable to a decrease in discretionary spending in regards to its electronic goods and also the impact of the volatile Australian dollar. However the organisation is in a growth period with a number of new stores opening in a strategic move.The company has been a popular stock and has proven to be quite resilient, trading strongly through the persist few nettled years and also distributes a strong yield. It is in a good position to see through the current wave of volatility. Harvey Norman (HOLD) The strength of the Australian dollar has seen a rise in lucre commerce. Harvey Norman is launching a centralised online website to respond to this growing trend. International holdings have been performing well and there are talks of a possible elaboration into the UK.The stock has been proven to be comparatively resilient with a reasonable dividend and is adapting to a changing market by looking at opportunities onlin e and abroad, for these reasons the recommendation would be to hold. Section B Question 1 Section B Question 1 direct and discuss four advantages for AWPL of establishing a mill in crude Zealand Operating costs Establishing a new milling machinery in New Zealand will save AWPL $A2 million per annum which is a significant savings long term. These additional funds can be used to slash debt or spent on further product development or research Increase production With the establishment of the New Zealand facility AWPL will be able to meet the demands of their current production and collectively with its Melbourne location the demands of the new proposed contract in the US. This will add a projected 30% to sales growth. Save $A 3 million Establishing the new location at New Zealand would mean the fire come along to the current location at Devonport would no longer be necessary and the funds will be used to support the long term functionality and growth of the business as oppo sed to a maintenance cost Brand cognizance Currently AWPL provides production for Australia, UK, Germany and potentially the US. Having a location in New Zealand will promote the brandmark and create awareness which may lead to business opportunities through production in their domestic sector in the future Also four major funding and/or business constraints that AWPL demand to consider when deciding whether to establish a new factory in New Zealand or upgrade and expand the existing factory in Melbourne Production concerns Due consideration needs to be made to accredited concerns over AWPL ability to meet the demand of current production requirements during construction of a new factory in New Zealand. Meeting these demands are imperative to the survival of the business $1 million payout Will need to be paid due to the retrenchments of the employees at the Devonport factory, this is a considerable amount of capital and needs to be taken into consideration Establishment cos ts AWPL have determined that the establishment costs of the New Zealand venture are high with additional costs that do not exist in Australia Debt patronage All the proposed developments require capital of $A10 million, AWPL do not have the liquidity to cover this outlay and will need to look at financing options. Their lenders at the moment already have concerns over their current take of gearing, so they will need to look at all their options. Question 2 a) Is AWPL legal for itemizationing on the ASX given its current structure and financial position? AWPL is not able to list on the ASX given its current structure, as it does not currently meet the requirements of the ASX listing rules. In particular condition 7 which states An entity must satisfy either a) or (b) a) There must be at least(prenominal) 500 holders each having a parcel of the main class of securities with a value of at least $2,000, excluding securities not acquired by those holders under a recent prospectus or Product apocalypse education b) Both of the following are satisfied There must be at least 400 holders each having a parcel of the main class of securities with a value of at least $2,000, excluding securities not acquired by those holders under a recent prospectus or Product disclosure Statement AWPL is unable to meet these requirements as it currently only has 40 shareholders ) Listed companies are required to comply with soused obligations imposed on them by the ASX Listing Rules. Explain four obligations that AWPL would be required to fulfil if it was a listed company Under Condition 3 of the ASX listing rules A prospectus or Product Disclosure Statement must be issued and lodged with ASIC. If ASX agrees, an information memorandum that complies with the information memorandum requirements of Appendix 1A will be sufficient instead of a prospectus or PDS. This ensures that potential investors have access to critical financial information about the organisation to make a n informed decision to invest or not. 1. 2. 4 of the service Test states that the entitys aggregated profit from continuing operations for the last 3 full financial years must have been at least $1 million. This is to ensure the organisation is successful and has the kernel necessary to warrant being listed on the ASX 1. 2. 5A states that the entity must give ASX a statement from all directors collateral that they have made enquiries and nothing has come to their attention to suggest that the economic entity is not continuing to earn profit from continuing operations up to the date of applicationThis is to ensure the organisations admission is based on literal information and aims to confirm the integrity of the organisation and its intention not to commit any acts of fraud or deception 1. 3. 5 The entity must give ASX each of the following a) Any postings, together with any scrutinize report or review for the last 3 full financial years (or shorter period if ASX agrees) an d if the last full financial year ended more than 8 months before the entity applied for admission, for the last half year (or longer period if available) from the end of the last full financial yearIf the accounts have not been audited or reviewed, the entity must tell the ASX This ensures that there is full disclosure of financial information to the ASX and potential investors Question 3 a) Discuss three reasons why the bank would be reluctant to increase funding to AWPL at this time Financial Markets Due to the implications of financial markets over the last few years starting with the Mortgage Sub Prime crisis in the United States and more recently the sovereign debt crisis in Europe, lenders have sound tighter with their lend practices.They want extra security and having a signed contract confirming the commitment for production in the US confirms the need for additional funding The bank already has expressed concern over the level of gearing the organisation holds at the moment so without evidence to support the need for expansion there will be hesitancy from the lender There is also an element of risk involved as there is concern that if the upgrade and expansion plans are not handled effectively then production rates may be harmed which would ultimately mean AWPL would be unable to meet current order demands.If that was to occur then the ability of AWPL to service its current debt commitments to the bank would be placed in jeopardy b) rogue is concerned that the New Zealand project will expose the shareholders of AWPL to a new financial risk (associated with borrowing funds to upgrade the Melbourne factory and to establish the New Zealand factory). Assume that the US contract is signed. Identify the new financial risk. Discuss the implications of the risk on debt repayment schedules and outline the steps AWPL might take to reduce the riskJack is concerned about AWPL ability to meet current production orders. The fear is that if establishment of the NZ factory and upgrade of the Melbourne location isnt seamless it will affect the ability of the business to meet current demands and that of the new contract. This exposes the business and current shareholders to potential risk of defaulting on existing debt demands from their lender. AWPL may look at hedgerow this risk by looking at Business Risk Protection which would cover their expected income if they are unable to meet their demand for various reasons.AWPL should also consider looking at alternate factory locations they can use at short notice if production is impacted for any reason Question 4 a) Identify and discuss three effects that an appreciating Australian dollar (AUD) would have on a decision by AWPL to move its manufacturing operations to New Zealand An appreciating Australian dollar would be a concern for the core of AWPL business which is merchandises. If the Australian dollar rises a major implication is the impact on the terms of trade as exports become mo re expensive and imports become cheaper.A likely result would be an increase in domestic spending on imports and reduced demand for exports in external countries. This would be a huge concern for the viability of AWPLs international production orders. If there is a change in the current revenue streams than it may impact their ability to service their current debt and/or gain finance for expansion plans Also an appreciation in the Australian dollar will mean AWPLs exports will become more expensive and may result in them not being as competitive as other international competitors. The impact of this may be felt in loss of contracts, renegotiations and general cost cutting.Severely impacting their ability to implement any expansions These concerns will not only be felt by AWPL but by their shareholders and lenders. When approaching lenders about further debt funding an appreciating dollar and the potential negative impact on the business may very well be taken into due considerati on before approval. b) fetching into account current economic conditions and financial market sentiment, identify and discuss two factors that could cause the AUD to move significantly above its current rate against the US dollar in the coming months One impact which could cause the AUD to move significantly above its current rate against the US dollar is the appetite for risk from foreign investors. With extreme volatility being experienced in the market currently and concern for the global economy the Australian dollar can be influence by the risk appetite of foreign investors. During the volatile times in the market we are experiencing currently there are heightened perceptions of risk which leads to a decline in the demand for riskier assets which promotes a move for investors to quality investments and an appreciation of reserve currencies such as the US dollar.This can see the Australian dollar appreciated when markets sentiment is high and there is positive news about foreig n and global development and depreciate on negative news. An additional factor which may see a further increase of the AUD over the US dollar could be another round of Quantative Easing (QE3) from the United States. This involves the US Federal Reserve effectively prints more silver injecting it into the economy The US government achieves this through purchases of bonds and places money into banks which then be loaned to the public.This in turn eases lending constraints and money flows through too small to medium businesses. A consequence for the US is that the increase in the picture of their currency weakens the value and causes further appreciation of the Australian dollar Question 5 A) Discuss the outlook for global economic growth in 2011. Support your answer with a percentage forecast for global growth International recovery after the Great Financial Crisis has been uneven with markets seemingly moving sideways recently. Risks globally remain high with world economies cont inuing to recover from its effects.Financial conditions have improved through embodied earnings and financial market volatility has moderated, notwithstanding ongoing concerns over European Sovereign debt and the European Union ability to contain the crisis. The forecast for advanced economies is to continue to consolidate, where as growth in emerging markets is anticipated to deliver higher levels of growth and returns. Therefore in accordance the global economy is wide predicted to grow over 4% in 2011 down from 5% growth in 2010. Although traction has been made global economic recovery also remains vulnerable and a clear resolution to the sovereign debt crisis in Europe ill provide markets with strong sentiment and incentive to return to the equities market. Also trial for the US to develop a viable solution to the unsustainable US Fiscal position also poses a threat to the progress of global recovery (B) Each of the countries below has a significant influence on global growth. Briefly comment on each countrys outlook for economic growth in 2011 Support your answer with a percentage forecast for each countrys economic growth i) USA The forecast for the United States is that their economy will grow between 3. -4% in 2011. This is an increase from the 3% growth recorded in the 2010 calendar year. The basis of this will be driven from growth in the consumer and business spending and personal consumption expenditure (PCE), an increase in consumer spending. PCE is adding between 0. 7% and 2% to overall US growth has increased for five consecutive quarters. Concerns for the US are European Sovereign Debt, budget concerns at all levels of government and falling house prices. These effects could impact and lead to a slower US recovery. ii) ChinaDue to the unprecedented growth of China, tighter monetary policy was necessary to reign in growth which is still projected to be close to 9% in 2011. Inflation is a everlasting concern and will increase over the calendar year. It is chinas greatest concern and most pressing policy issue, their ability to contain this effectively will determine their sustained growth. The present account surplus is set to fall to 4. 5% of gross domestic product, which is a reflection of a decline in export growth and higher commodity prices While high commodity prices pose risks they are unlikely to dent growth.Currency appreciation will continue at a gradual pace as reserves pull in iii) japan In March 2011 the Great East Japan Earthquake was the strongest ever recorded in Japan and triggered a tsunami which severely damaged the country and was the impact was felt on world equity markets. A preliminary report by the government estimated damage at between 3. 3-5. 2% of 2010 GDP There are serious concerns about Japans ability to recover from such a traumatic native disaster. The timing and strength of an economic recovery is difficult to forecast.The growing uncertainty about the Japanese recovery, heighten by the ongoing nuclear situation and rising oil prices are adding to the difficulty of the situation. However Japan has experienced natural disasters before and the sentiment from other advanced nations is there will be a rebound in economy as reconstruction spending picks up. 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